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How to understand the margin and fairness of the coefficient
Prices in lines are not "net" probabilities, but probabilities plus operator margins. Understanding exactly where the office's earnings are hidden allows you to soberly assess the "honesty" of the coefficients, find value and not overpay for excitement. Below is an understandable technique with ready-made formulas and mini-calculators "in the head."
1) Quick dictionary
Implicit probability (dirty): probability directly "stitched" into the coefficient.
Margin/Around/Vig/Juice: the sum of "dirty" probabilities for all outcomes minus 100%.
Fair Probability: Probability after margin removal.
Fair quotient: quotient corresponding to fair probability.
Hold%: real retained margin at a distance (after results); around - theoretical "embedded" in prices.
2) Conversion of coefficients to implicit probability
Let the coefficient d be decimal.
Dirty probability:[
q=\frac{1}{d}
]- For positive (+ X): (d = 1 +\frac {X} {100}) → (q = 1/d).
- For negative (− X): (d = 1 +\frac {100} {X}) → (q = 1/d).
Fractional (a/b): (d = 1 +\frac {a} {b}) → (q = 1/d).
3) How to calculate the margin (around)
A) Two-source market (tennis, over/under totals)
Coefficients are given (d_1, d_2).
[
q_1=\frac{1}{d_1},\quad q_2=\frac{1}{d_2},\quad R=q_1+q_2
]Margin (percent): ((R-1 )\times100%).
Example. Over 2. 5 — 1. 90, Less than 2. 5 — 1. 90.
(q_1=q_2=0. 5263), (R=1. 0526) → margin ≈ 5. 26%.
B) Three-source market (football 1-X-2)
[
R=\sum_{i=1}^{3}\frac{1}{d_i},\quad \text{маржа}=(R-1)\times100%
]Example. 1 — 2. 10, X — 3. 40, 2 — 3. 60.
(q={0. 4762; 0. 2941; 0. 2778}), (R=1. 0481) → margin ≈ 4. 81%.
4) How to remove margins and get a "fair" price
Proportional normalization (standard)
For each outcome:[
p_i=\frac{q_i}{R},\qquad d^{fair}_i=\frac{1}{p_i}
]Example (two-source). 1. 90/1. 90, (R=1. 0526).
(p={0. 5263/1. 0526;, 0. 5263/1. 0526}={0. 5000; 0. 5000}) → (d^{fair}=2. 00/2. 00).
Example (three-source). 2. 10 / 3. 40 / 3. 60, (R=1. 0481).
Fair (p={0. 4546; 0. 2807; 0. 2647}) → (d^{fair}\approx{2. 200; 3. 564; 3. 778}).
Why you need to divide "honestly" proportionally
This distributes the margin in the same shares in which the outcomes are valued by the market. Other methods (for example, removing a fixed interest) distort the price structure and give non-fair relative ratios.
5) What is considered "fair" for the bet (value)
If your estimate of the probability of outcome (p ^) is greater than the fair probability (p) of the market (or, equivalently, if your estimate of the "fair" ratio is lower than the market), you have edge:[
\text{edge}=p^\cdot d - 1
](here (d) is the market ratio at which you bet)
Mini example. Market d = 2. 10, yours (p ^ = 0. 52).
edge (=0. 52\times2. 10-1=+0. 092) (9. 2%). This is + EV rate.
6) How "fair price" changes with alternative lines
Margins are unevenly distributed throughout the "ladder" of lines (Asian odds, alternative totals). On popular key lines (for example, total 2. 5 in football, the spread − 3 in the NFL/NBA) juice is often higher than on neighboring values.
Conclusion: if you are flexible along the line, look for the minimum margin and the best d next to it - sometimes the step in the ± is 0. 25 gives the best EV.
7) Promo, cashback and effective margin
Bonuses, boosts and cashback reduce effective juice:- Profit boost + 10%: Multiplies the winning portion, actually raises the d and lowers the over-round for your bet.
- Fribeth: Only "net" profit plays. Effective d below par - consider this in EV.
- 5% cashback on losses: reduces loss expectation → reduces effective margin.
8) Frequent pricing techniques (so as not to be deceived)
Shading favorites: Easy price "tilt" against popular sides - actual margin higher for favorite teams.
Rounding: 1. 83 vs 1. 85 - the difference seems tiny, but it's + 1-2 pp to your break-even.
Different league/market margins: top leagues - low juice, "niches" and props - higher.
Live and suspension: At peak times, the cashout/juice spread can temporarily grow.
9) Practical mini-calculators (in 3 steps)
Two-source market: fair and margin
1. We consider (q_1, q_2).
2. (R = q _ 1 + q _ 2) → margin ((R-1 )\times100%).
3. Fair (p_i=q_i/R), fair (d_i=1/p_i).
Fast life hack: if symmetrical prices are d/d, then
≈ margin (2/d - 1).
Example: d = 1. 90 → (2/1. 90-1=0. 0526) (5. 26%).
Three-source market: fair for 1-X-2
1. (q_i=1/d_i) (three values).
2. (R=\sum q_i).
3. (p_i=q_i/R), (d^{fair}_i=1/p_i).
10) How "honesty" relates to CLV
CLV (Closing Line Value) is the best indicator that you are "buying" an honest or better price. If your bets on average close at a lower ratio (you took 1. 95, closed 1. 85), you probably find underestimates and beat margins with timing/analysis.
11) Taxes, fees and cashout: hidden adjustments
Winnings tax (if in jurisdiction) reduces effective d → recalculate EV.
The exchange commission (2-5%) also hits d.
Cashout includes spread (hidden margin); it is a convenient but paid tool.
12) Check list "before clicking"
1. Did you count the margin? (R и % overround).
2. Took off the margin and got fair? (normalization (q_i/R)).
3. Have a value? (my (p ^) ≥ fair (p), edge ≥ threshold X%).
4. Is there an alternative line/operator with a smaller margin or a better d?
5. Included promo/commission/tax/cashout spread in EV?
6. Leading a CLV tracker (comparing my price with the closing one)?
7. Flat rate/Kelly share, no dogons.
13) Typical errors
Compare your probability with dirty (q), not fair (p).
Underestimate the impact of rounding (1. 83 vs 1. 85) to break even point.
Ignore that the alternative juice lines are different.
Believe that "freebet = free money": it is wrong to count EV.
Ignore taxes/fees/cashout spread.
Confuse a good one-off coupon result with a good price.
14) Short formula memo
Dirty probability: (q = 1/d).
Around: (R =\sum q_i), margin ((R-1 )\times100%).
Fair probability: (p_i=q_i/R).
Fair coefficient: (d ^ {fair} _ i = 1/p _ i).
Edge: (\text{edge}=p^\cdot d-1).
Kelly (fraction): (f =\frac {p ^\cdot d-1} {d-1}) - use fraction (¼- ½).
Margins are not "evil," but service charges and operator risk. Your task is to see it in numbers and be able to bring prices to an "honest" form. Convert coefficients to probabilities, take an round, compare with your own estimate (p ^), monitor CLV and take into account hidden adjustments (promo, commissions, taxes, cashout). Then the "honesty" of the coefficient will become not an opinion, but a calculated value - and you will start buying the price consciously.